The Depreciating Law Degree: A Story In Search of Facts

What a disappointment. 

On Sunday, the NYT carried a story titled "No Longer Their Golden Ticket" with a smaller heading that described young associates as "stuck with depreciating law degrees." Depreciating law degree suggests some type of permanent decline in the value of the JD.  Yet the article does little to support this apparent contention.  The article simply contains a list of horrors that have arisen as a result of the current recession.  

There is no question that the job market for legal degrees is horrible.  Large firms have deferred and sometimes canceled offers.  A higher proportion of graduates are likely confronting the end of their third year with no offers in hand.  Anxiety is up as is, apparently, the number of lawyers seeking counseling has risen. 

Yet these are the consequences of a bad recession, the worst since the Great Depression as pundits are fond of saying.  In the fourth quarter of 2008, the same article could probably have been written about pampered investment bankers.  Their financial institutions were failing and the market for corporate finance was drying up.  Now the market has recovered and these same financial institutions (at least the survivors) are looking at record bonuses.  Will the same be true for those with law degrees?  The article doesn't answer that question. 

The one insight, though, was that associates should be aware that they can no longer automatically count on partnership.  As the article described: 

• Smart, talented people will still find advancement within firms, he said. But “speaking candidly,” [a partner from Willkie Farr] added, “in the past, associates were a little oblivious” in presuming that if they “simply showed up every day and didn’t offend anyone, they were there indefinitely. They have had a wake-up call.”

But for associates at most large firms, this is not news and it is not a change in circumstances.  Even in the best of times, most large law firms promote to partnership only a tiny handful of the associates who start each year. 

Its a tough year to be sure.  But prosperity is just around the corner.